Okay...where to begin?
Vacation in Sweden has started and although I have some overseas assignments in the coming months, life has wound down. What better way to spend it than to catch up on some reading, TED talks and fellow futurologists (in between feeding session and walks with the twins, that is)?
This morning, the good people of Welledge, a chiropractic clinic in Stockholm, invited me to a session with "futurist" John L. Pedersen of the Arlington Institute. We were about fifteen people in the room who was going to listen to Mr Pedersen's view of the future. What I heard astonished me...for all the wrong reasons.
Before I begin to recap Pedersen's rant, let me point out that the word "Institute" is in no way a proprietary title. Anyone who wants (or needs) to give their company a feeling of weight and academic credibility can tag on the I-word in their company name. Compare Pattern Recognition AB with The Pattern Recognition Institute. Which one would you trust for a research report? Secondly, I intentionally stay away from the title “futurist” although some journalists insist on using it to describe what I do. The futurists were semi-fascist Italians and Russians in the early 20th century who frowned on the past and embraced (often violent) change. Enough said. On to Pedersen.
John Pedersen began by outlining the biggest challenges in the world today. It was basically the stuff that’s filled the news in the past few years – climate change, financial market meltdown, the end of oil and China turning belligerent (although Pedersen’s rather amusing reasons for China’s future violence was a cadre of Chinese bachelors unable to find a wife in China because of the one-child-per-family policy). He kept on saying things like “we are entering an area we’ve never seen before” or “unimaginable change” for dramatic effect, I guess. His conclusion was that “the entire system that we’re basing the world on right now” will collapse. Finance, oil, etc are all going out the window because “they did not work”. This rather drastic conclusion was followed by a prediction that we’re entering a new age “where even mankind might evolve into a new being”.
When I challenged him on some of the assumptions that he built his argument on (peak oil, the credit crunch, and so on), he smirked and gave me one of those “if you had to ask you just wouldn’t understand”-answers.
So what lies ahead in this “new age”. Well, said Pedersen, “competition is going to disappear because it’s based on an idea of separateness”. The future is about…are you ready…collaboration! Disregarding the fact that the word competition comes from Latin’s com petare – to strive together and that competition tends to be beneficial for consumers and sports fans alike, the idea of collaboration can hardly qualify as any kind of groundbreaking prediction. Most of the 20th century was about companies, regions and nations getting closer to each other and collaborating (and competing at the same time in some instances). Then came Pedersen’s denoument. Forget all talk of Black Swans and unpredictable events; The Arlington Institute has the answer. It’s called a Dream Machine (or a “Wether Report” as in “Whether or Not?”…it was unclear what the actual name was). The technology, which Pedersen is “refusing to sell to the US government although they want it” is based on the assumption (and make that assumption as in vague guess) that people tend to “dream more vivid dreams prior to big tragedies like The Tsunami and 9-11”. The idea then is to hook all these people up to a machine so they can talk about their dreams and intuitions “before the events happen”. A prediction machine…
Whoa…
Ehhh….
When I pointed out (quite generously if I may say so myself) that the US government was working on something similar back in 2002 minus the metaphysical aspect, he went even further by talking abut the CIA’s remote viewing project and about psychic’s predicting the future. His friend has in fact already predicted the future and you’ll be happy to know that “after 2012 everything looks different…something has changed”.
And so on.
And so forth.
The more worrying aspect of this session was the amount of nodding and “oh yes” that went on amongst the participants.
Someone asked “who owns the Federal Reserve” and Pedersen gave the common near anti-Semitic answer that “ultimately it’s owned by a few families…The Rothschild’s and others”.
I didn’t know whether to laugh (I did, believe me) or sigh (I did that too).
What do people like John L Pedersen do to our profession (trendspotters and futurologists alike), I wonder. What if someone would mistake what I do with what he does?
Doomsaying, quasi-scientific conspiracy theorists may be amusing to listen to in small doses but when they start masquerading as “professors”, “futurists” and “consultants”, it may actually do some harm.
What about the people who felt “enlightened” by Pedersen?
Still, I guess it’s people like him that make me do what I do. I can’t help to quote the central mission of The Economist:
“Founded in 1848 to take part in a severe contest between intelligence, which presses forward, and an unworthy, timid ignorance obstructing our progress”
So I was teaching Elementary School, as I do every single Monday from here until time ends (approximately), and had decided on teaching Weather words, since I've learned that the Japanese love to pretend to talk about the weather. They don't really, it's just a standard conversation opener. The only time they DO seem to talk about the weather is if they're asking me whether I enjoy the humidity. I don't. They continue to ask me this as the humidity steadily increases, reminding me that when I arrived it was hovering around 90% with 38 degree temperatures, which it's likely to return to before I leave. Assuming my brain doesn't melt.
Anyway, I chose a nice easy set of pre-made vocabulary words from MES-English because it reduced my prep time to "How quickly can I save this onto a USB" and set off to teach. Only the people living here apparently hadn't heard of "Hail". Including the teachers. I attempted to explain this to all the classes I teach, which I for the most part failed at, until one student finally piped up with the correct answer of "Arare!"
The teacher then told him that was wrong, as that's ALSO the unconjugated form for the word "Sexually improper dress or conduct". I mean it was, but that wasn't the point. How does no one here know what Hail is?
This story isn't going anywhere, I'm just trying to get back into the spirit of writing things.
I don't know whether I should acknowledge (i.e. admit) or completely ignore my dismal blogging record this past few months. To all readers - I'm sorry. I have only excuses and very few reasons besides the balancing act of a career, a marriage and two twin boys.
The subject is wearing Calvin Klein eyeglasses which are about "several years" old. Way before its design became overrated at major places of attraction of today's trendy youth.
In Brussels yesterday evening, I had the great pleasure of meeting entrepreneur and leadership coach Eric Vogt. Having founded such firms as Communispace, Eric has now turned his attention to his greatest interest, wine. His company, Eprovenance, uses RFID technology to ensure a high quality level of wine bottles. The RFID sticker transmits bottle temperature constantly. Eprovenance reminds me of the introductory chapter of the book I'm currently
Braga City Walk; Bandung - 01.06.08
I just spent the week in London, doing workshops and speaking at the London Business Forum. I may just start with the most remarkable bit first: meeting Richard Branson. Before I get back to that, here are some reflections of trends in the UK.
My first attempt in nightlife photography. Know these people? Write in their names in the comment box. Now with extra shots courtesy of JK!
Pictures below are by JK.
And now we return to our regular street fashion shots...